I do not give up

Diego Horcajada, January 2018

Five months in the program, half way in: lots of reading, writing, self-reflections and learning. The picture of the challenge for sustainable development is becoming clearer to me, it is overwhelming to realize the amount and the size of the sustainability challenges we face. I acknowledge that some times I am tempted to give up and turn the look away, it is hard to believe politicians and business leaders will implement the required solutions for a sustainable present and future; there is too much money at stake!

Just thinking about the sums of money invested in current technologies for energy and logistics infrastructures, I cannot believe it will happen: how can we realistically imagine that funds will move rapidly and sizeably enough to make the change of technologies, when there are still huge returns expected on current investments.

But no, I do not give up! Half way on my program studies I am discovering very encouraging examples of truly innovative a brave companies moving in the right direction, and I see interesting changes in policies and strategies:

• Mobility sector: some governments are setting due dates for partial or total bans on combustion-engine vehicles. More car manufactures are committing to a drastic change in the technologies they put on their customer’s hands.
• Energy sector: Several countries are engaging in the transition to sustainable energy systems. Latest projections indicate renewables will be cheaper than fossil fuels in the next 3 years, as explained by Ramey Naam last year at the Singularity University South Africa Summit.

But I still think we are not sufficiently addressing the elephant in the room: consumer society and consumer empowerment. I’ve been posting about the environmental and social impacts of consumer traditions, fashion industry (documentary and post) and food industry (documentary). I would like to dedicate this post to share my latest learning on the actual role of the food and agriculture in the sustainable development.

Allow me just to set my scene first:

As part of my program studies, I am participating in a consulting project for a really inspiring company based in Zurich, its name is Eaternity and their ambition is “to create the future of gastronomy”; In 2008 Judith Ellens (Eaternity co-founder) had the idea to measure environmental impact of the food served in restaurants and to propose ideas to reduce it, she joined forces with Manuel Klarmann (co-founder and CEO) to start the company and Eaternity AG was finally incorporated in 2014. Today Eaternity provides a cutting-edge comprehensive management solution for the restaurant industry, already implemented in 74 restaurants. Eaternity solution has help their customers to deliver 76,034 climate friendly meals and to save 22 Tons of CO₂e emissions (86,780 Km driven by an average passenger vehicle)

For my project, I am currently finalising the design of a collaboratory exercise that will bring together different stakeholders from the catering industry. The objective of the exercise is to raise awareness on the role of the food industry in the sustainable development, and explore solutions with all stakeholders. On February the 1^st I will be running a simulation exercise with friends and former colleagues (but this will be the matter for other post).

During the preparation of this exercise I’ve got to learn a lot about climate change, greenhouse gases and their sources. I would like to share with you what I’ve learned, and I will do it in the form of simple questions and answers, followed by some comments.

About CO₂:

Question: How much CO₂ go to the atmosphere from natural processes every year?

Answer: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 150 billion tonnes of CO₂ are released to the atmosphere as a result of natural processes of life in earth.

Question: How many tonnes of CO₂ are emitted yearly to the atmosphere as a result of human activities?

Answer: According to the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC) 36 billion tonnes of CO₂ were released to the atmosphere as a result of human activities.

Comment: Natural emissions are indeed much larger than anthropogenic (originating in human activity) emissions, but this conclusion comes with some important caveats:

1. For roughly the last 10,000 years, since the end of the last glacial period, until the industrial revolution, every tonne of CO₂ released to atmosphere was compensated by a tonne of CO₂ absorbed by the nature through the natural carbon cycle.
2. Human made emission have been growing since the industrial revolution; the CDAIC reported that anthropogenic emissions increased from 2 billion tonnes in 1900 to over 36 billion tonnes in 2015. For the nature to absorb this extra volumes it would have been necessary an increment in its absorption capacity. We know nevertheless the absorption capacity is decreasing due to deforestation.
3. We do not need complex mathematics or scientific knowledge to conclude there is more CO₂ in the atmosphere now than prior industrial revolution. But for those still sceptical, the analysis of the ice caps confirm the assumption, we have gone beyond the 400ppm, a record value for a very very long time as illustrated in the reconstruction of CO2 atmospheric concentrations based on analysis from ice caps. 

 

About greenhouse gas anthropogenic sources:

Question: What are the primary anthropogenic sources of CO₂?

Answer: It would not be a surprise to anyone if I say the energy and transportation sectors are the primary sources of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Titanic technological and economical efforts will be required to reach the ambition of Paris Climate Agreement: keep global warming below the 2°C

Question: Are there other greenhouse gases?

Answer: Yes, Methane (CH₄) and Nitrous Oxide (N₂O) are two important greenhouse gases to be considered if we want to have the full picture. There are some other compounds luckily for us in a very small concentration.

Question: Do all the greenhouse gases have the same global warming potential?

Answer: No, they don’t. If we consider the global warming potential over a 100 year timescale, we find that 1 tonne of Methane has the same warming effect than 28 tonnes of CO₂ and 1 tonne of Nitrous Oxide is equivalent to 265 Tonnes of CO₂.

Comment: when we look therefore to the full picture we arrive to a different conclusion, perhaps the efforts required to reach the ambition of Paris Climate Agreement (keep global warming below the 2°C) are not just about technology and economy, perhaps the sum of small individual contributions can be more effective.

About food and agriculture impact on climate change:

Question: Are greenhouse gases emission evenly distributed across all agriculture activities?

Answer: No, livestock related emissions contribute nearly two-thirds of the total agriculture (crops & livestock), what actually means that livestock related emissions exceed the emission of the global transportation system.

I found a very interesting and self-explanatory info graphic comparing the contribution of the meat and diary industry to climate change in comparison with the contribution of major economies such as Germany and France. I was shocked when I learned that:

• The greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂-eq) from the 3 largest meat producers exceed the emissions of France
• The greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂-eq) from the 20 largest meat and diary producers exceed the emissions of the Germany

In addition, I’ve learned that 80% of the global deforestation is the results of agricultural expansion, and two-thirds of it is actually to produce grain for cattle feed.

Final reflexion:

We are in verge of the biggest food crises in human history, the world economic forum (WEF) writes about a broken global food system.

In one hand we see that climate change is putting at risk agricultural production yields, we are facing issues of water scarcity in some regions and arable surface is becoming a scarce resource in others. In 2016 we had 815 million people undernourished and we have not yet found the solution to feed 10 billion people in 2050.

In the other hand we know that meat production consumes nearly two-thirds of the freshwater on yearly basis, pollutes more than the global transportation system and is responsible for half of the global deforestation.

I think we have therefore a powerful solution in our hands: we need to drastically reduce meat consumption. Easy to say, but would we be able to adapt our habits?

As usual, I would be glad if you share your thoughts.

Diego Horcajada

 

References:

• Our World in Data: a project produced by the University of Oxford and made available in its entirety as a public good
• Our World in Data: CO₂ and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Our World in Data: Meat and Seafood Production & Consumption
• 3 gros producteurs de viande polluent autant que la France entière